Data, AI, content, commerce and distribution to define advertising leaders by 2030

WPP Media has released its Advertising Intelligence Framework outlining how intelligence providers can be evaluated as advertising partners in the emerging AI-driven marketplace.

The framework was first referenced in the latest This Year Next Year Global Forecast.

It identifies five capability categories that it says will determine which agencies become primary sources of intelligence for businesses and consumers by 2030: Data Assets, AI/Tech, Distribution, Commerce/Transaction and Content/Media.

Data Assets refer to the volume, quality and variety of proprietary data held about consumers, businesses and the physical world.

AI/Tech assesses model development, infrastructure and algorithms used to generate outputs.

Distribution evaluates user reach, engagement, hardware endpoints and ecosystem trust.

Commerce/Transaction examines transaction and advertising systems and business relationships.

Content/Media considers the pairing of content with advertising and commerce opportunities.

According to the analysis, Distribution is the most durable competitive advantage and the highest barrier to entry, while foundational AI models are rapidly becoming commoditised.

The report groups major technology companies into four strategic categories based on these capabilities.

Under ‘Ecosystem Builders,’ the analysis includes Alphabet and Amazon, citing their broad consumer reach and diversified monetisation models.

The ‘Specialists’ category includes Alibaba, Meta, Microsoft, Tencent and xAI, which the report says demonstrate deep strength in one or two capability pillars.

The ‘Challengers’ group includes Apple, ByteDance and OpenAI. These companies are described as building toward full-stack capabilities but currently lacking the scale or breadth of ecosystem builders.

Under ‘Hardware Heavyweights,’ the report lists Samsung and Xiaomi, citing their device footprints and sensor ecosystems.

The report also outlines five strategic questions for advertisers entering the AI era, including whether companies own or rent customer intelligence, whether partners can demonstrate incrementality and off-platform conversion without direct commerce capability.

It also outlines whether targeting strategies can withstand privacy regulation shifts through 2030, how to manage sudden distribution declines among top partners, and whether AI systems making purchase decisions will recommend their products or services.

The marketplace remains fluid, with future outcomes likely to be shaped by decisions on capability development, mergers and acquisitions, and partnerships.