India’s retail market to reach $1 trillion by 2030: Report

India’s retail market is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, led by rising disposable incomes, digital adoption, and growing aspirations, according to The Indian Consumer at 2030 report by Fireside Ventures & Redseer Strategy Consultants.

The report indicates that branded retail is set to double, reaching $730 billion, or nearly half of the overall retail market. New-age brands are growing two to three times faster than traditional ones, driven by e-commerce, quick commerce, and direct-to-consumer (D2C) platforms.

In 2014, general trade accounted for 91% of India’s retail; by 2030, that share is expected to drop to 70%, as modern trade and digital channels expand. D2C and quick commerce alone are projected to capture around 5% of the market.

The report notes a sharp rise in internet penetration, with 1.1 billion users and 400 million online shoppers expected by 2030. Smartphone penetration is set to reach nearly 70%, while social media continues to narrow the awareness gap between metros and smaller towns.

Private consumption is expected to add $300 billion annually to India’s GDP, which is on track to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030.

Demographic shifts are also shaping consumption trends. By 2030, India will have around 400 million Gen Z and 350 million Millennials, together forming twice the population of the United States. These generations are driving growth in categories like health, wellness, travel, and personal care.

The report highlights 13 key shifts defining the decade ahead, from the rise of women as decision-makers and the expansion of branded consumption in smaller towns to the growing focus on health, experiences, and AI-driven personalisation.

“India’s next 100 iconic brands will be built not by following, but by rewriting the rules, going niche, speaking in new voices, and serving long-ignored needs,” the report notes.