Global ad market to hit US$1.19 trillion in 2025 as growth climbs to 8.9%: WARC

The global advertising market is on track to end 2025 with 8.9% growth, reaching US$1.19 trillion, according to WARC’s latest Global Advertising Trends: Media’s New Normal report. The forecast represents an upward revision of 1.5 percentage points from September, driven largely by the dominance of Big Tech platforms and a relatively stable global trade environment.

WARC expects this momentum to continue. Global ad spend is projected to rise 9.1% in 2026 to US$1.30 trillion, followed by a further 7.9% expansion in 2027, taking the market to US$1.40 trillion. That would be double the level recorded in the pandemic-hit year of 2020 and roughly equivalent to US$150 per person worldwide.

The report argues that structural forces, rather than macroeconomic conditions, are now shaping the trajectory of the industry. Alex Brownsell, Head of Content at WARC Media, said advertising has “broken away from the economic cycle” and no longer moves in step with wider economic sentiment. He noted that new investment from digital-native sectors, the evolution of commerce-led media channels, and the self-reinforcing scale of Big Tech have redrawn the landscape.

Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are set to tighten their hold on global advertising budgets. Excluding China, the three companies are expected to take 56.1% of all ad spend in 2025, amounting to US$556.6 billion. Their combined share is forecast to climb to 58.0% in 2026 and 58.8% in 2027. While platforms such as TikTok and Reddit continue to expand, their overall revenue base remains much smaller; TikTok’s ad revenue is projected to reach US$45.2 billion by 2027, still less than one-fifth of Meta’s.

The consolidation is being fuelled by the platforms’ continued reinvestment at scale in artificial intelligence, automated creative tools and first-party data systems. Meta alone directs close to 30% of its quarterly earnings to research and development, underscoring its focus on long-term dominance.

The report also points to the resilience of digital-native budgets at a time when economic pressures persist. With real wages under strain and consumer sentiment muted, sectors rooted in e-commerce, technology and online services are continuing to invest heavily in measurable channels such as search, social and retail media. Retail media now accounts for 14.7% of global advertising spend. A survey of more than 1,000 marketers found that 51% expect to increase brand-building budgets in 2026, despite broader concerns about demand.

Regionally, the United States remains the world’s largest advertising market, estimated to reach US$421.1 billion in 2025, representing 35.3% of global spend. Growth of 7.0% is forecast for 2026 and 6.4% for 2027. China is expected to expand 6.9% in 2025 to US$200.1 billion, with a stronger 8.9% rise projected for 2026. The United Kingdom, now the third-largest market globally, is forecast to grow 9.3% next year to US$58.1 billion. India is set to increase 4.6% in 2025, with faster growth of 8.0% in 2026 and 9.7% in 2027. Other major markets, including Brazil, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Japan, are projected to post steady multi-year gains, supported by global sporting events and sustained digital investment.

According to WARC, the industry is entering a new era in which advertising spend is increasingly decoupled from economic cycles and concentrated among a few global technology companies. The shift, it says, marks the arrival of a “new normal” defined by AI-driven ecosystems, performance-oriented media channels and the financial weight of digital-native advertisers.