Experts flag 15-40% festive media inflation: How brands are staying ahead

Every festive season, the media market braces for a familiar phenomenon: rates spike, inventories tighten, and brands scramble to secure premium slots. According to the World Advertising Research Center, India’s media price inflation is expected to reach about 9 % in 2025 and 9.6% forecasted for 2026, up from 8 % in 2024, making it one of the highest among key markets globally. 

Against this backdrop, festive media inflation, therefore, is not a seasonal blip but a structural reality that reshapes how campaigns are planned, budgets are allocated, and returns are measured. For marketers, this means the festive quarter isn’t just about higher ad spends, it’s about navigating a market where scarcity and soaring demand collide.

“During the festive season, we typically observe a significant rate escalation in the range of 15-20%. This surge is higher on high-impact television channels, particularly within the General Entertainment (GEC) and News genres,” said Manish Sharma, President - Arena India. 

He called this spike “a classic case of supply and demand”, as brands try to capture consumer attention, the finite, high-reach advertising inventory becomes incredibly scarce, driving up costs for premium slots. 

The spike isn’t limited to TV. “During festivals, digital channels and the quick-commerce sector see the sharpest increases: retail-media CPMs rise ~30% and CPCs climb ~33%, while premium slots on Q-commerce can hit ~40% hikes. Out-of-home (OOH) spends also rise 15-30%, with DOOH leading the surge, and influencer collaborations command 20% higher rates. Print sees smaller 10-15% hikes," explained Vaishal Dalal, Co-founder of Excellent Publicity.

These numbers set the stage for brands facing a dual challenge: how to win share during the festival sprint while avoiding budget burnout. The question is less about whether media inflation will happen and more about how brands can prepare for it.

Locking before the surge

One of the clearest conclusions across agencies is that early planning yields not just saves costs, but also gives brands strategic control.

Sharma highlighted, “Brands can expect to save approximately 10-15% on direct media costs by locking in rates before the seasonal surge. However, the true value lies in the indirect savings and added efficiencies, which can account for an additional 5-10% which includes securing premium ad placements, better audience targeting, and integrated sponsorship opportunities that are unavailable at the last minute.”

By combining direct cost savings with these operational efficiencies, brands can significantly enhance the overall effectiveness of their festive campaigns.

In total, proactive planning can unlock 20-25% in overall value, allowing brands to reinvest those funds for greater reach and impact. - Manish Sharma

Similarly, Dalal shared that timing is everything: “Brands can save 15-25% on budgets by locking media in July or August. Early deals help avoid festive premiums, secure prime placements, and negotiate value-adds like vernacular creatives or integrations.”

Beyond budgets, early planning gives campaigns the breathing room to refine ideas and ensure that strategy and creativity move in sync.

Anisha Iyer, CEO OMD India, said “Early planners stretch every rupee further, achieving more impressions, broader reach, and superior placements than those entering the market late, while sidestepping last-minute premiums that often negatively impact ROI. I’ve seen strong ideas falter under last-minute pressure; early planning ensures that strategy and creatives are fully aligned, giving campaigns clarity, cohesion, and resonance at the outset.”

Taken together, the message is clear: allocate and negotiate early, before the clamor begins. That becomes the foundation around which flexible tactics can be deployed.

Tactical response for last-minute buyers

Even the best-laid plans sometimes hit internal delays, approval bottlenecks, or shifting briefs.

Dalal said: “Quick-commerce, food delivery, on-demand gifting, and some FMCG/D2C brands lean towards last-minute buys to capture spontaneous consumption.”

Trupti Dave, Senior VP & West Head, Starcom India, said, “Last-minute buying is most common among challenger or new brands that don’t yet operate on long planning cycles, seasonal or local players, jewellery stores, gifting brands, regional retailers, trying to cash in quickly. Even large brands sometimes fall into this trap when internal approvals get delayed.”

If brands end up buying late, the agencies offer specific, tactical mitigations.

Sharma explained, “For brands forced into a last-minute buy, the strategy must pivot from broad visibility to precision targeting.” 

He noted that instead of pursuing premium placements that are no longer available, brands should identify niche platforms or specific dayparts where their target audience is still reachable, even in less crowded environments. 

“Be prepared to invest in less conventional but still effective channels. This could mean focusing on regional media, specific digital audio platforms, or tactical influencer marketing where high-impact opportunities might still exist,” Sharma added. 

He furthermore highlighted that a contextually relevant ad in a secondary slot can outperform a generic message in a prime position, and careful scheduling, including frequency capping and dayparting, maximises returns while avoiding wasted spend.

If you’re late to the table, don’t spray and pray. Focus on precision programmatic DOOH, impulse-hour Q-commerce slots, and agile regional creators. Let data steer every rupee.- Vaishal Dalal

So late buys should not replace foundation media. Rather, they should act opportunistically and precisely, aimed at plugging gaps in reach or reinforcing momentum in conversion zones. Even then, the spend needs to be surgical.

Balancing certainty and opportunism

When it comes to last-minute media buys, agencies are unanimous: this should never be the primary strategy, but it can play a tactical role if used wisely. Sharma cautioned that “last-minute buying is rarely a viable primary strategy, but it can be a valuable tactical tool. It is most effective when leveraging 'distress inventory', unsold ad space that media houses offer at a significant discount to fill remaining slots.”

Echoing this sentiment, Dalal noted, “Outside of on-demand commerce, last-minute buying is a gamble. Smarter brands secure early and keep a flexible tranche for tactical bursts instead of betting everything on the rush.”

Iyer added, “The foremost thing to note is that last-minute buying, especially during the festive season, should not be a primary strategy; it should be an astute one. In the world of moments, brands need to pick their moment. But time is not the only thing, as space is equally important.”

She explained that for many industries that see a spike during this period, an omnichannel presence, smartphones, TVs, mobile devices, desktops, becomes key to deliver a perfect user experience. 

To complement the omnichannel presence for last-minute demands, retargeting is the way to go. With AI becoming a massive player in real-time predictive analytics, having a retargeting strategy in place will let you sail smoothly amidst a scramble in the sea.

-Anisha Iyer

Taken together, these perspectives highlight a clear principle: the smartest approach is neither “all-in early” nor entirely last-minute, but a hybrid split that balances certainty with opportunism. 

Sharma recommended securing “80-90% of their core festive plan in advance” while reserving “10-20% as an ‘opportunistic fund’” to capitalise on distressed inventory. 

Dalal echoed this approach, advising brands to “keep a small contingency fund (5-10%) for tactical bursts.”

From Iyer’s perspective, a phased full-funnel model works best: early investments build awareness, while conversion-led bursts are executed closer to peak festivities. 

Lock in guaranteed slots early, but reserve part of the budget for performance-led, programmatic, and influencer campaigns closer to the season.

-Trupti Dave

This hybrid allocation gives brands the best of both worlds: it secures stability in reach and creative continuity, while also maintaining tactical flexibility to respond to value deals, emerging trends, or sudden opportunities in the market. 

In an environment where both media rates and consumer attention are volatile, this dual strategy ensures campaigns remain effective without overspending.

Strategy before the sprint

When it comes to festive media, success rarely comes from reactive decisions. Across agencies, the consensus is that the campaigns that start early and follow a structured, phased approach consistently outperform last-minute scrambles. 

Dalal summed it up, “Winning Diwali doesn’t happen in Diwali week. It’s built months earlier with demand modelling, omnichannel orchestration, and vernacular storytelling. Early planners maximise both reach and ROI.”

Iyer highlighted the importance of a phased approach that spans strategy, media planning, creative development, and activations leading up to both major and minor festivals. She advised that early phases (July-August) should focus on top-of-funnel awareness, engaging audiences and shaping perceptions, so potential customers are primed well before the shopping rush. As the season progresses, campaigns should pivot toward bottom-of-funnel initiatives, targeting last-minute gift buyers and driving conversions.

Dave reinforced this approach with a three-pronged framework: start early, adopt a phased rollout, and balance certainty with agility. Brands should lock in guaranteed slots early while reserving part of the budget for performance-led, programmatic, and influencer campaigns closer to the festival.

Beyond spot buys, Dave recommended exploring sponsorships, festive content integrations, and cross-platform bundles to stretch every rupee. Her bottom line: “Plan early, layer smartly, spend wisely.”

Brands that invest in early strategy, align media and creative efforts across the funnel, and maintain tactical flexibility are far more likely to maximise reach, ROI, and resonance, without falling prey to inflated last-minute costs.

Festive media inflation is becoming the default structural condition in a competitive, high-demand marketplace. Brands that treat media planning as a late-stage number-crunching exercise will find themselves paying for the wrong inventory, with limited leverage or fallback options.

Buying media at the last minute is like booking a flight the day before Diwali, you’ll get a seat, but at a premium and with no guarantee of timing.

-Vaishal Dalal

Lock in core media early, reserve a tactical flex fund, and deploy creative and measurement levers at scale.

Because in a high-inflation environment, how you manage spend is as important as how much you spend.