India’s festive AdEx to see 10-12% lift in 2025

The 2025 festive season is shaping up as one of the most closely watched in years, thanks to a powerful combination of economic reforms and buoyant consumer sentiment.

A comprehensive GST rationalisation, a pivot to just two main slabs (5% and 18%), with select luxury/sin goods at 40%, will come into effect on September 22, signalling a timely stimulus ahead of Diwali and other key festivals.

Industry leaders say the effect will be immediate. “In 2025, clients are aggressively investing in festive advertising, with India’s AdEx projected to grow 10-12%, driven by strong consumer sentiment and e-commerce sales,” said Manish Sharma, President, Arena India (part of Havas Media Network India). 

That sentiment is echoed by Anshu Yardi, VP, TAM Media Research, who said, "We anticipate a healthy uplift in festive AdEx, likely in the single to low double-digit range, as GST rationalisation boosts advertiser sentiment and budget availability.”

Sharma added that the GST rate changes announced recently, from exempting individual life and health insurance (previously 18%), to reducing ACs and dishwashers to 18% from 28%, cutting beauty services to 5% from 18%, exempting breads, and bringing a uniform 18% on batteries, could act as a cushion. 

According to him, these reforms will boost disposable income and affordability across food, electronics, personal care, and services, thereby encouraging consumer spending and brand reallocations to digital campaigns during the festive season.

From blanket spends to laser targets

The playbook for festive advertising has changed. For advertisers, the days of blanket reach are behind; every rupee now needs to prove performance.

Amita Srivastava, SVP, Carat India, described this year as a “barbell festive season.” Large categories like FMCG, durables, and BFSI are leaning in to protect share, she said, while discretionary players are surgical with spends. “No one’s writing blank cheques anymore.”

It’s a season of sharper math and smarter bets. Budgets are being sliced with discipline, but the appetite to capture festive demand is still strong.

Guru Mishra, SVP-Media, RepIndia, said, “Brands are breaking away from measuring regular KPIs and pivoting towards attribution & attention-based planning layered with performance marketing to harvest full potential.” 

The shift from vanity metrics to attribution-driven ROI defines the new discipline.

In short, festive strategy today is less about making noise and more about ensuring that noise converts into measurable action, setting the stage for where those actions are taking place.

Formats taking the lion’s share

If spending is smarter, formats are bolder. Innovation is where the money is flowing, and the festive season is becoming a testing ground for channels that marry scale with accountability.

Srivastava called CTV and retail media the big festive winners. She said, “They are attracting serious rupees because they deliver measurable reach and sales.”

She further explained that consumer electronics brands are tapping CTV to catch premium households outside traditional TV, while FMCG majors are doubling down on Flipkart and Reliance Smart’s retail media networks to influence last-mile purchase. Influencer commerce is also a rapidly evolving product. Diwali hampers are selling out on livestreamed shopping events, and AI-driven creative versioning is now a workhorse, enabling auto brands to swap regional language offers overnight to keep creatives hyper-relevant. 

According to her, “These aren’t experiments anymore; they’re real budget line-items.”

The acceleration is unmistakable. A few years ago, these were side bets; today, they are the centre of gravity.

Sharma echoed the surge. He shared, “AI-driven creatives, connected TV, retail media, influencer commerce (up 30-40%), and shoppable ads are commanding higher budgets, leveraging personalisation and interactivity.” 

This shows how tech-driven formats are moving from experiment to essential. And while categories are recalibrating, the push and pull between headwinds and GST tailwinds will decide how far the optimism carries.

Headwinds vs GST tailwinds

The festive air is not without its challenges.

Sharma cautioned: “High gold prices, inflation, geopolitical uncertainties, and cluttered ad spaces could dampen spends, pushing brands toward digital and affordable alternatives like silver and lab-grown diamonds.”

Srivastava agreed, pointing out that record-high gold prices could dent jewellery gifting, prompting jewellers to shift messaging towards silver and easy EMIs. 

“Geopolitical uncertainty and FX swings are forcing auto importers to stagger launches,” she added.

But GST relief is cushioning those blows. Yardi highlighted, “Key categories expected to drive festive AdEx in 2025 include e-commerce, FMCG, consumer durables, automobiles, and fintech.” 

By lowering prices across these very sectors, GST rationalisation ensures demand is not stifled, even amid inflation and global uncertainty.

As brands juggle risks and reforms, the question becomes: will the momentum survive beyond the festive lights?

What happens after Diwali?

Does momentum fade with the fireworks? Srivastava doesn’t think so. She observed that November-December usually cools off, but Q1 2026 has its own mini-peaks: budget season drives BFSI campaigns (insurance brands traditionally roll out their largest SIP drives in Jan-Feb), wedding season boosts beauty and apparel, and cricket warms up CTV as brands lock inventory ahead of the IPL. Retail media also remains hot, with one leading FMCG company using January to reset launches through in-store and app-based promotions when stocks are replenished.

In her words, “The smart brands won’t go dark; they’ll move from big bursts to always-on cadence with a performance lens. Festive momentum tapers, yes, but it doesn’t collapse.”

Mishra injected caution, warning that customer buying sentiment peaks in Q4 and advertisers spend the maximum from earmarked budgets during this crucial window. “AdEx in Q1’26 is expected to be muted,” he added.

Between optimism and restraint, the road ahead suggests continuity, but at a steadier rhythm. This festive season is not just a rebound in numbers, it’s a reset in mindset. With GST rationalisation unlocking disposable income and marketers embracing accountability, innovation, and timing, 2025 could mark the year Indian AdEx finally shifted from scale to smartness.

Note: Social Samosa’s Festive Marketing Camp is set to take place on September 9th, 2025, in Mumbai, bringing together industry leaders to decode the future of festive marketing. The agenda features a mix of keynotes, panels, and fireside chats designed to uncover what it takes to cut through clutter, maximise every commerce avenue, and turn festive buzz into lasting business outcomes. For queries, write to us at events@socialsamosa.com.