Ban on Real Money Gaming wipes out Rs 15 billion in IPL ad revenue

The Promotion & Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025, has banned Real Money Gaming (RMG) platforms, hitting a USD 4 billion industry by revenue and erasing its 25% share, about Rs 15 billion of the Indian Premier League’s (IPL) ad revenue worth Rs 60 billion.

Karan Taurani, EVP, Research Analyst (Media, Retail, Consumer Discretionary and Internet) at Elara Capital, said the move would dent broadcaster revenues, slow digital ad growth, and put investments at risk.

"India’s Parliament passed the Bill, and several regulations were enacted. This Act would dent broadcaster revenue (JioStar and cricket events), slow digital ad CAGR by 300 basis points to 7.5% during CY24-25, and risk Nazara Technologies’ ₹10 billion stake in PokerBaazi,” he noted.

Impact on IPL and advertisers

RMG platforms, led by Dream11, My11Circle, and WinZO, had been the most aggressive IPL advertisers. With the ban, Taurani said elevated advertising rates are likely to cool down, while new-age players from e-commerce, consumer tech, paan masala and discount broking may fill the vacuum.

Over the last six years, Dream11 spent Rs 57 billion on ads, while Games 27x7 invested Rs 10 billion, contributing significantly to the Rs 100 billion RMG ad spend (80% on digital). According to EY and Dream11, this accounted for 11% (Rs 80 billion) of India’s Rs 700 billion digital ad market and nearly 7.8% of overall ad revenue.

Broadcasters and agencies face revenue void

The exit of fantasy platforms leaves a revenue gap for broadcasters and agencies. Taurani said, “With their exit, digital ad industry growth could moderate 300 billion to 7.5% CAGR during CY24-25, compared to the earlier 10% CAGR expected for RMG, per our assessment.” Broadcasters like JioStar, heavily reliant on IPL and cricket sponsorships, are among the worst affected.

Programmatic firms have already reduced exposure

The impact on programmatic advertising firms is expected to be limited. Post the GST hike on RMG, firms such as Affle had already reduced exposure. RMG currently contributes only 2.5% of Affle’s consolidated revenue and 1.5 - 1.8% of EPS in FY25. Taurani pointed out that while gaming remains a growth vertical for Affle globally, “the recent ban has no material impact on its operations.”

Nazara Technologies at risk

The ban has put Nazara Technologies’ investment in PokerBaazi operator Moonshine Technologies at risk. With a 46% stake valued at Rs 10 billion, the company faces a potential non-cash impairment. PokerBaazi posted sales of Rs 4.2 billion in FY24, accounting for 36% of Nazara’s total revenue, and held a 27% share in India’s online poker market. In Q1FY26, NAZARA posted a Rs 2.0 billion share of loss from associates, led by Moonshine Technologies. Taurani highlighted that this investment forms 23% of Nazara’s total assets, five times its annualised Q1FY26 PAT. However, Nazara’s core businesses in gaming, eSports, and ad-tech remain unaffected.

Platforms pivot to new models

India’s online gaming market, valued at USD 3.7 billion in CY24 (86% from RMG), was projected to reach USD 9 billion by CY29 at a 20% CAGR. With the ban, companies are shifting strategies. Dream11 is scaling FanCode (sports streaming), Dream Game Studios (casual IP), and DreamSetGo (sports tourism). MPL is pushing free-to-play formats, while PokerBaazi is exploring overseas markets. Zupee is doubling down on casual games like Ludo and Snakes & Ladders, and WinZO has launched in the US.

Taurani noted, “We believe RMG money can flow to speculative markets, such as FNO and forex trading. This means higher viewership for OTT platforms, such as Netflix, JioHotstar and Amazon Prime.”